Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
