A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
